Population estimates are calculated using a ‘top down’ approach. The national estimates for England and Wales are produced first; estimates for sub-national areas (region, local authority, ward, etc) are then produced and constrained to the national estimates. Further details of the methods used for population estimates are available on the National Statistics website.
It is difficult to say for sure how accurate or inaccurate they are. However, migration data, particularly international, are relatively unreliable at local levels because IPS samples are very small at small geography levels, requiring combining of areas and time periods.
Therefore, for very local geographies, we use local GP registration data to improve the accuracy of the estimates, but the figures are constrained to match the most recent ONS mid-year estimates (currently 2009) at district and county levels in terms of overall population as well as 5-year age bands.
Click below to download data and associated reports.